Thanks to the volume from the speciality stores and catering industry Rabobank is expecting that the supermarket sector will show some increase in turnover. This, however, is not expected to exceed far above the 1%. The increase of volume for the entire market will however be limited the coming years. Of the expected turnover increase in the Dutch supermarket sector up to 2016 only 0.6 million Euros can be ascribed to an increase of volume.
We have seen some major market developments on the market in 2013: expansion of the Lidl, on-line and non-food players like Action. In view of the limited increase of volume on the market, the expansion of the Lidl, on-line and the non-food chains will be at the expense of the more traditional supermarket chains.
Judging on the growth expectations of these trends, 4% market share, almost 1.5 million in turnover, will be redistributed in the coming years. In a sector where market shares once were calculated to two decimal points a redistribution of 4% will mean a complete landslide.
We have seen some major market developments on the market in 2013: expansion of the Lidl, on-line and non-food players like Action. In view of the limited increase of volume on the market, the expansion of the Lidl, on-line and the non-food chains will be at the expense of the more traditional supermarket chains.
Judging on the growth expectations of these trends, 4% market share, almost 1.5 million in turnover, will be redistributed in the coming years. In a sector where market shares once were calculated to two decimal points a redistribution of 4% will mean a complete landslide.
Supermarkets that threaten to loose the battle on-line, struggling with a bad price reputation an/or otherwise don't know how to distinguish themselves will have to pay the price in the upcoming years. In the displacement market of the Dutch supermarket landscape pressure on margins are expected to be the catalyst for a rationalisation of the stores and further consolidation of the sector.
Source: Rabobank