California's almond crop is expected to match the large production experienced during the past two seasons. With a steady domestic market and growing demand abroad, the state's almond industry looks to have another good year.Early signs point to a good year, according to Brian Wright of Del Mar Farms in Westley, California. In addition to an ideal bloom set, he noted that new acreage will provide good yields. That fits in with a general sense that this year will bring production totals similar to last year's large returns.
"Everyone we've talked to has admitted that we're going to have a lot of almonds this year," he said. Early forecasts estimate this year's production around 2 billion pounds, slightly lower than last year's totals. Wright said that although output will be good, it's hard to top production from previous years on the back of seasons with such large numbers.
"As an industry, we had a lot of growth last year, but it will be hard to top that this year," he said. "It's very rare to see an industry that has 10 to 12 percent growth year after year after year."
The market has remained strong so far, said Wright, with some growers getting prices as much as 20 percent higher than last season. Although it's often hard for a crop to maintain strong prices when there's record production, almond growers are benefiting from a worldwide surge in demand.
"California grows the majority of the world's almonds," said Jim Jasper, owner and president of Stewart and Jasper Orchards. "So there's not a lot of competition." Consequently, as demand grows in places like India and China, the world looks to California growers to fulfill that extra demand.
Harvesting typically begins during the early part of July and continues into October, but both Jasper and Wright believe it will be about one week early. A U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast in May estimated a 2 billion pound crop for 2012. A second forecast on this year's crop will be released later this week.