Australian fruit and vegetable production in 2025–26 is forecast to decline, largely due to reduced irrigation availability and higher water prices across the Murray–Darling Basin. ABARES projects total vegetable production to reach 3.6 million tons, 5% below last year but in line with the 10-year average. Fruit production is expected at 2.7 million tons, down 6% from 2024–25.
Vegetable production has been constrained by higher costs for inputs and irrigation. Processing tomatoes are forecast at 970,000 tons, 10% lower than the previous year as planted area decreases. Potatoes, the largest vegetable crop, are forecast to fall by 3% to 1.3 million tons. Onions are forecast at 290,000 tons, a 6% decline. Carrots are projected at 320,000 tons, 4% lower than in 2024–25.
Fruit production is also forecast to be lower. Table grape production is expected to fall by 7% to 180,000 tons, reflecting the impact of dry seasonal conditions and reduced water allocations. Citrus output is forecast at 930,000 tons, 5% below last year, with lower yields anticipated in some growing regions. Almonds, olives, and wine grapes are excluded from these estimates.
In Queensland, total fruit and vegetable production is forecast at 1.5 million tons, down 4% year-on-year but 6% above the 10-year average. In New South Wales, production is forecast at 1.2 million tons, 8% lower than last year. Victoria is forecast to produce 1.3 million tons, while South Australia's output is projected at 650,000 tons, both slightly below 2024–25 levels. Western Australia's production is forecast at 710,000 tons, 3% lower than last season. Tasmania is expected to produce 290,000 tons, mainly potatoes, which is 2% below last year.
Exports of fresh vegetables are forecast at 260,000 tons in 2025–26, compared with 275,000 tons in 2024–25. The value of vegetable exports is projected at US$470 million, down from US$490 million last season. Fresh fruit exports are expected at 460,000 tons, down 7% from last year. The value of fruit exports is projected at US$1.3 billion, compared with US$1.4 billion in 2024–25.
ABARES notes that water availability and costs remain the main challenges for irrigated fruit and vegetable production. Seasonal conditions in key regions, combined with export market access and logistics, will determine outcomes for growers during the season.
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For more information:
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
Tel: +61 2 6272 3232
Email: [email protected]
www.agriculture.gov.au
