Potatoes have been traded at high price levels in this 2023/24 crop that occurs in the rainfall period. The boost comes from lower supply – the main producing regions faced weather adversities especially due to the effects of El Niño.
In January this year, the average value of ágata potato reached BRL 145.71 per 25-kg bag, the highest, in nominal terms, of Cepea series, started in 2001; in real terms, it was the third highest average, below that registered in June/2016 (BRL 146.09) and in April/2001 (BRL 151.14) – values were deflated by the IGP-DI. In March/24, prices decreased compared to the first weeks of the year, but continue at high levels.
In the South of Brazil, excessive rainfall and high temperatures have reduced the productivity in around 20% or more. In the Cerrado Mineiro region, high temperatures hampered the yield in the field.
Considering the price series since 2001, it is possible to indicate that, different from what happened in the past, the current increases are accompanied by a scenario of solid earnings in the mid-term – results have been positive for five years in a row.
Short periods with more pressure on table potato values, as observed in September 2023, were fundamental for caution regarding increased investments in this segment to be triggered. As a result, for 2024, the expectation of a positive year for the fresh segment continues. The current cultivated area is balanced with the demand. Price seasonality, with highs as registered at the beginning of this year, or lows as in September/23, are related to other variables, such as the planting calendar, technology, management and, above all, the weather.
For more information:
CEPEA - Center for Advanced Studies
on Applied Economics
Tel.: + 55 (19) 3429 8800
Email: cepea@usp.br