In 2024, citrus growers in São Paulo/Triângulo Mineiro may enjoy sustained high prices for oranges. The continuing imbalance of supply and industrial demand could keep availability in the in natura market limited. While it's not yet possible to predict the harvest volume for the 2024/25 season, it's anticipated that orange juice supplies may not meet demand, given the projected low juice stock levels in June 2024.
According to CitrusBR, the orange juice concentrate equivalent in stock at the end of the 2022/23 season (June/23) was a mere 84.745 thousand tons. Cepea, using Fundecitrus's orange production forecast, suggests that stock volumes at the end of the current season (June/24) may not be much higher. This situation could be exacerbated if exports remain high and productivity continues to underperform.
For a recovery in stock levels by June 2025, it's crucial that the orange harvest volume in São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro exceeds recent averages. However, 2023's greening and heat wave challenges may hinder a bountiful 2024/25 harvest.
Despite the positive profitability outlook in 2023, significant investments in São Paulo are not anticipated for 2024, due to the high prevalence of greening. Planting may continue in Triângulo Mineiro, but soil and irrigation resources are limited.
The first two months of 2024 could see a high orange supply in São Paulo state due to peak season, potentially driving down prices. Despite a likely increase in processing and exports, prices may remain low at the start of the year.
Source: www.cepea.esalq.usp.br