The 2020-2021 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is down 3.80 million boxes to 51.7 million boxes. If realized, this will be 23 percent less than last season’s revised final production. The forecast consists of 22.7 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 29.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom.
Non-Valencia Oranges 22.7 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia orange production is up 200 thousand boxes and is final at 22.7 million boxes. Non-Valencia harvest is over for the season. The Row Count survey conducted March 29-30, 2021, showed relatively all the early & mid-season non-Valencia rows are harvested. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is 580 thousand boxes.
Valencia Oranges 29.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia orange production is lowered 4.0 million boxes from the previous forecast and is now 29.0 million boxes. Final fruit size is below average, requiring 246 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. Final droppage, measured at 41 percent, is above the maximum, and the highest in a series dating back to the 1960-1961 season. The Row Count survey conducted March 29-30, 2021 showed 48 percent of the Valencia crop is harvested. Estimated utilization for Valencia oranges to April 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 12.8 million boxes.