During MY2018/19, a 5.1 percent increase in area planted and 9.6 percent increase in production was forecast, based on growing demand for Egyptian oranges.
Egyptian orange prices in the international markets are more competitive than prices offered by other international suppliers due to a devalued Egyptian pound. Though there is increased production, the population increase is higher and exports remain strong. Post forecasts total exports to increase by seven percent or 110,000 MT to reach 1.650 MMT. Most likely Egypt will remain the sixth largest orange producer and the first or the second largest exporter of fresh oranges in the world, depending on Spanish performance in MY2018/19. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Netherlands and China will likely remain the top import destinations for Egyptian oranges. As MY2017/18 orange exports did not meet forecast levels, post is adjusting downward last year’s fresh orange exports from 1.600 MMT to 1.540 MMT.
In MY2017/18, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Netherlands, China, United Arab Emirates, India, United Kingdom, Bangladesh, and Ukraine were Egypt’s top ten export destinations for oranges. Russia and Saudi Arabia continue to absorb roughly 33 percent of Egypt’s total orange exports. Post expects that export destinations will remain unchanged for MY2018/19.
In MY2017/18, Egypt’s orange exports increased significantly in certain markets. Orange exports to India increased by 132 percent or 45,313 MT to reach 79,545 MT compared to 34,232 MT in previous year. Exports to Vietnam increased by 657 percent or 2,928 MT to reach 3,350 MT compared to 422 MT. Shipments to Canada increased 126 percent or 1,799 MT to reach 3,233 MT compared to 1,434 MT.
Egyptian orange exports to China are expected to increase. In September 2018, China imposed up to 25 percent tariff on US products including fresh fruit. Post expects that Egypt will replace a portion of the US shipments to China.