Tomato prices in the U.S. have increased in recent months due to tariffs, higher energy costs, and supply disruptions. The average retail price for field-grown tomatoes reached US$2.26 per pound in March, the highest level in more than eight years. Prices rose by 15% in March, following a 6% increase in February, with annual growth at 23%.
Economists point to tariffs on imports from Mexico as a key factor. The U.S. imports around 70% of its tomato supply, with Mexico accounting for about 90% of those imports. Tariffs of about 17% on fresh Mexican tomatoes were introduced in July, affecting prices in the fresh produce category.
"I do expect there's more pain on the horizon for tomato prices," said Ricky Volpe, a professor of agribusiness at California Polytechnic State University.
Retailers have absorbed part of the cost increases, but these are now being passed through to consumers. Limited substitution options for imported tomatoes have contributed to price pressure.
Domestic supply has also been affected. Florida, the largest U.S. producer of fresh tomatoes, experienced winter freezes and storms between December 2025 and January 2026, reducing supply during the spring transition period. Production in Mexico has also been impacted by weather and disease, resulting in lower yields.
Fresh tomato production in the U.S. is seasonal, with harvesting concentrated in warmer months, while Mexico supplies the market during winter and spring. Current supply conditions in both regions have tightened availability.
Energy costs are adding further pressure. Brent crude has increased to about US$95 per barrel, up from around US$70 before the conflict, leading to higher transport costs. Diesel prices have increased, affecting distribution, particularly for perishable products such as fresh tomatoes.
Processed tomato products are less affected by fresh tomato tariffs but face higher costs linked to metals such as steel and aluminium used in packaging. Prices for canned fruits and vegetables increased by about 6% year-on-year in March.
"It's become significantly more expensive to can, process, and store fruits and vegetables," Volpe said.
Further price increases are expected as higher energy costs continue to move through the supply chain. Any easing in prices is likely to occur gradually, with round tomatoes adjusting first, followed by cherry and grape varieties depending on seasonal production cycles.
Source: CNBC
