Exporters entered the 2025/26 orange juice season with positive expectations, supported by the removal of United States import tariffs on Brazilian orange juice and by higher orange production in São Paulo state.
However, lower-than-expected demand from Europe kept exports subdued between July and October 2025. Early November shipments are also expected to remain slow, as European purchasing continues at a reduced pace.
With weaker international demand, crushing companies in São Paulo have taken a cautious approach to fruit procurement. Purchases have been limited to previously contracted volumes, with additional fruit bought only on the spot market. Spot prices have been lower, ranging from BRL 35 to BRL 38 per box delivered to processors in São Paulo, equal to approximately US$6.30 to US$6.84 per box.
Pressure from the processing industry is beginning to affect the market for fresh fruit. With lower prices offered by processors, part of the crop is expected to shift toward the in natura market. This may increase volumes entering wholesale supply centers and place downward pressure on grower prices.
Producers and buyers in São Paulo continue to monitor export demand closely as the season progresses, particularly the purchasing pace in Europe, which plays a key role in shaping both processing demand and fresh-fruit allocation.
Source: Cepea
