Kenyan avocado exporters have started limited trial shipments to assess whether the fruit can reach international markets in sellable condition, as regional conflict and disruption in the Red Sea affect the 2026/2027 season.
With traditional trade routes affected and destinations such as Dubai currently inaccessible, the sector is approaching peak season with caution. Official season dates remain unset, although special export permits have allowed some growers with ripe fruit to begin shipments.
"These shipments will provide important clues about the outcome of the season should the war and the crisis in the Red Sea last," said Noor Yassin, director of Avochichi. "We were eager to start, given signs of strong demand. However, since the war broke out, we are no longer certain of what to expect."
Transit times to markets including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Europe have increased, while the United Arab Emirates is currently not accessible. "We currently have orders from Dubai that we cannot fulfill, as there is no means of transport, either by sea or by air," Yassin said.
Current trial shipments are destined for Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Exporters are monitoring whether shipping lines can maintain Red Sea routes and whether fruit quality can be maintained during longer transit periods.
The situation also affects downstream markets. Dubai's hospitality sector, which relies on imported produce, is exposed due to the current disruption in shipments.
The sector refers to earlier disruptions in 2024. "Many exporters made no sales at all. Many went bankrupt, including large companies that couldn't recover. Others continued to load despite long transit times, and that was also painful because fruit quality upon arrival was poor, and customers-imposed penalties," Yassin said.
Rising insurance costs, freight rates, and quality management requirements are affecting margins and operational planning. Exporters are adjusting by prioritizing transport feasibility over demand.
"There's no point in defying the logistical situation and continuing to load shipments if they're going to arrive in poor condition," Yassin said.
As trial shipments move through affected routes, exporters are assessing outcomes that will influence supply decisions and market positioning for the 2026/2027 season.
Source: FoodBusiness
