Climate change is no longer a distant risk for the fruit and vegetable sector. It is increasingly shaping global fresh produce markets. Extreme heat, drought, erratic rainfall, and unexpected spring frosts are affecting production, prices, and trade flows, according to EastFruit. Analysts state that over the next 10–20 years, climate resilience will become a key determinant of competitiveness.
EastFruit has identified crops particularly sensitive to climate change that could strongly influence global markets.
Tomatoes
Tomatoes are highly sensitive to heat. When temperatures exceed 35°C, fruit set declines, and yields drop. Mediterranean producers are facing higher drought risk and water restrictions, contributing to a shift of production toward northern Europe and increased investment in greenhouse technologies.
Potatoes
Potatoes depend heavily on water availability and soil temperature. Dry years in Europe have reduced output by millions of tons. In parts of Latin America, plantations are moving to higher altitudes due to rising temperatures. This trend suggests higher production costs, greater price volatility, and increased demand for resilient varieties.
Blueberries and berries
The berry segment continues to expand but remains sensitive to climate stress. High temperatures in Peru, the leading blueberry exporter, have contributed to yield declines and price spikes, quickly reflected in retail markets.
Citrus
The citrus sector faces both climate pressure and plant diseases. Falling orange production in Florida and declining global orange juice stocks illustrate ongoing structural challenges. Market reconfiguration is expected, with new production regions gaining importance.
Peaches and stone fruit
Stone fruit is vulnerable to late spring frosts, which can cause losses of up to 50–70% in parts of Europe. This increases price instability and drives investment in frost-protection technologies.
Peppers and open-field vegetables
Open-field vegetables depend directly on the water supply. Droughts in North America and Mexico have disrupted pepper availability and increased prices for processed products. Access to water is becoming a primary limiting factor.
Leafy greens
Extreme weather is disrupting lettuce and other vegetable seed production, creating potential ripple effects across supply chains and highlighting the need for diversified seed production regions.
Nutritional quality concerns
Elevated CO₂ levels may reduce levels of iron, zinc, and protein in crops, affecting both output and nutritional content.
Structural transformation ahead
Production geography is shifting, and price volatility is intensifying.
"Climate change represents both a risk and a window of opportunity for Ukraine. We are already observing shifts in agro-climatic zones, allowing for the expansion of berries, vegetables, and orchard crops in regions where this was previously less efficient. However, competitiveness will depend not on the climate itself, but on the speed of technological adoption — irrigation systems, plant protection, resilient varieties, and modern production management," says Kateryna Zvierieva.
According to her, technological capacity and adaptability will increasingly determine countries' positions in global markets.
Source: EastFruit
