The 2025/26 EU potato season is characterised by oversupply, prompting industry participants to focus on planting decisions for 2026/27. Planted area is emerging as a key factor in determining whether supply and demand can be brought back into balance.
Market conditions remain under pressure. High production volumes, a heavily contracted season, and stronger competition in export markets have limited free-buy trade. With spot demand low, growers still holding stock face limited sales opportunities.
Several market sources indicate that conditions are unlikely to improve in the near term. Some expect the situation to remain unchanged until at least mid-year, while others state that the current imbalance could continue "for a long time".
Industry participants argue that a structural correction is required to restore equilibrium. After record acreage in 2025/26 across the EU-4, France, the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium, the North-Western Potato Growers Association, NEPG, has urged producers to assess their planting plans carefully for the upcoming season.
Although many market participants anticipate a reduction in planted area for 2026/27, there are differing views on the scale required. According to a report published by World Potato Markets, "A drop of 10% in the area and average yields would bring the market into balance, but we have never seen such a decline before." Other sources estimate that a reduction of 15–20% may be necessary, but expect the actual decrease to be closer to 5%.
At the same time, European processors are facing reduced demand for frozen fries from certain overseas markets. Saudi Arabia, for example, has lowered imports from Belgium, while competitors have expanded their presence. India has increased export volumes to Saudi Arabia in recent years, supported by lower pricing compared with Belgian products.
Market participants note that adjustments to contracted tonnage could also influence supply dynamics. Significant cuts in contracts could increase the volume of potatoes available on the free market, adding further pressure if overall acreage remains high.
Sources state that acreage decisions will be critical in shaping the 2026/27 outlook. They caution that if production is not sufficiently reduced, the current imbalance may continue, with one source warning that if acreage is not cut adequately, "the market will be lost again next season."
Source: Mintec/Expana
