In the aftermath of the recent rocket attack on the Number 9 boxship, owned by Castle Harbour and operated by OOCL, concerns are rising about the safety of vessels passing through the Red Sea.

Linerlytica emphasizes that the threat has expanded beyond ships directly involved in the Israel-Palestine conflict, posing risks to all vessels navigating the Red Sea. In response to the growing dangers, some shipping companies are rerouting their vessels. ZIM Line, based in Haifa, has already redirected its ships from the Suez Canal to the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, and Maersk Line has rerouted two ships chartered from Israeli interests.

The impact of these diversions, while currently minimal, could become more pronounced if the threat to vessel safety in the Suez intensifies. Linerlytica estimates that 30% of the total container ship capacity could be affected if the situation worsens. Currently, 653 container ships, with a combined capacity of 8.25 million TEU, use the Suez Canal, and only a small fraction of these have direct ties to Israeli carriers or interests.

Despite concerns about transit restrictions in the Panama Canal and diversions from the Suez Canal, the overall impact on global shipping is limited. Congestion in the Panama Canal has slightly alleviated, with ships moving to the Suez and the Cape of Good Hope. However, Linerlytica notes that the impact on the overall fleet is currently less than 2%.