In the U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly outlook, released Wednesday 9 November, Florida's orange harvest is forecasted to fill 72-million 90-pound boxes, up 2 million boxes from the initial forecast in October.

However, if realized, this forecast will still be 12 percent less than last season’s production and the least since the 1963-64 season of 54.9 million boxes (excludes Temples). 

The forecast consists of 36.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 36.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2006-2007 through 2015-2016 seasons. For those previous 10 seasons, the November forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 7 percent, with 8 seasons above and 2 below, with differences ranging from 9 percent below to 19 percent above. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons unless noted.

Non-Valencia oranges 36.0 million boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is raised 2.00 million boxes to 36.0 million boxes. Current size is below the minimum and projected to be at the minimum at harvest. Current droppage is below the maximum and is projected to continue below the maximum until harvest. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is unchanged at 1.00 million boxes. Current Navel size is below average and droppage is above the maximum.

Valencia oranges 36.0 million boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged at 36.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the average and is projected at harvest to be below average. Current droppage is near the maximum and projected to be below the maximum at harvest.

All grapefruit 9.60 million boxes
The forecast of all grapefruit production is unchanged at 9.60 million boxes. The white grapefruit is unchanged at 2.10 million boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 7.50 million boxes. Projected fruit size of white grapefruit at harvest is below average while projected droppage is above average. Projected fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is just above the minimum and projected droppage is above average.

Tangerines and tangelos 1.55 million boxes
The forecast of tangerine and tangelo production is lowered 100,000 boxes to 1.55 million boxes. The early tangerine forecast (Fallglo and Sunburst varieties) is now at 590,000 boxes, consisting of 200,000 boxes of Fallglo tangerines and 390,000 boxes of Sunburst tangerines. Harvest of Fallglo tangerines is well underway. Fallglo final size is close to the minimum, while final droppage is higher than projected and closer to the maximum at 38 percent. Sunburst current size is close to the minimum and is projected to be close to the minimum at harvest. Sunburst droppage is projected to be above average at 28 percent. The Royal tangerine forecast is held at 220,000 boxes.

The forecast of the later maturing Honey variety is lowered to 420,000 boxes. Current Honey size is below the minimum, but is projected to be just above the minimum at harvest. Projected Honey droppage at 40 percent is about average.

The forecast of tangelo production is unchanged at 320,000 boxes. Tangelo projected fruit size is below average requiring 301 pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound box. Droppage is projected to be above average at 19 percent.

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