New Zealand's kiwifruit sector is targeting an additional 20 million trays by 2030 under Zespri's five-year strategy, alongside a goal of increasing orchardgate returns by at least 1.5 times over the next 10 years.
Industry projections indicate a reduction of around 10 million trays of Green fruit, equivalent to about 800 hectares, with much of this area expected to transition to licensed SunGold production at 400 hectares per year. A further 1,000 to 1,200 hectares of new orchard development is anticipated for SunGold and RubyRed plantings over the next five years.
Post-harvest operators indicate they can manage the additional volumes but expect further investment in storage and packing capacity. Derek Masters of DMS Progrowers said expansion is underway in areas such as Paengaroa, with the western Bay of Plenty expected to account for much of the growth. He noted that some avocado growers are considering conversion to kiwifruit following lower returns.
"There will also, however, be a need for a significant increase in capital works for storage and packing facilities. Everyone is talking about that beyond 2028 in Western BoP."
James Trevelyan of Trevelyan's Pack and Cool said the company has developed a model to support avocado orchard conversion. "The blocks are relatively small, but they are generally quite fertile and well located."
He also pointed to reduced returns in grape production in Gisborne and challenges in the apple sector in Hawke's Bay as factors supporting interest in kiwifruit. He said that even with strong dairy returns, land use changes can occur depending on timing and ownership decisions.
Infrastructure constraints remain a factor, particularly in the western Bay of Plenty, where transport delays to the Port of Tauranga are increasing during peak harvest periods. Brendon Lee of MPac said growth is expected beyond Te Puke, including Te Teko and Ōpōtiki, with further investment required. "MPac is willing to continue to invest very heavily in post-harvest infrastructure as long as Zespri is confident they can continue to grow value for growers."
EastPack CEO Hamish Simson said the growth target reflects a balance between grower expansion and licensing limits. "It's a bit of a tug of war between Zespri and growers. If growers are good at what they do, and are making the good money they are, they only want to do more of it."
NZ Kiwifruit Growers CEO Colin Bond said Hawke's Bay has seen a reduction of 60 hectares since 2021, while the east coast has added 260 hectares since 2022. He and Masters both highlighted reliance on the Waioeka Gorge route for transport from Gisborne.
Grower Mark Mayston said land use is shifting, with avocado blocks converting and new orchard developments underway. "But it is increasingly clear that global demand for kiwifruit is still not being met, so demand for land to plant is likely to continue."
Source: Farmers Weekly
