After a period of demand for grapes exceeding supply, weeks 50 and 51 saw exports of table grapes from South America to the U.S. exceed four million boxes. The expectation was for even higher volumes to be shipped in week 1 of 2026. "3.5 to 4 million boxes per week is what the U.S. market can absorb," says Ira Greenstein with Direct Source Marketing. As soon as volumes are above 4.5 million boxes, the market will adjust lower. Any volume that falls below 3 million boxes on the other hand results in a shortage and an increase in pricing.
After two weeks with strong volumes at the end of 2025, only 3.5 million boxes were shipped from Peru and Chile combined during Week 1 of 2026. "No matter the reason for this low number, it wasn't wat the industry was expecting," said Greenstein. "However, these numbers do represent stability in the market."
Stable shipments from Peru
Compared to last year, export volumes from South America are much more stable, which appears to be driven by lower volumes from Chile. The table below shows that Peru exports a very stable volume of about 3.1 million boxes of grapes each week, both last season and this season. Chile on the other hand, shipped 1.4 million boxes during the 2nd week of 2025 versus 500,000 boxes during the same week this year.
| Week | Country | Exported volume in boxes |
| Week 50, 2025 | Peru + Chile | 4.4 million |
| Week 51, 2025 | Peru + Chile | 3.9 million |
| Week 52, 2025 | Peru + Chile | 3.9 million |
| Week 1, 2026 | Peru | 3.1 million |
| Week 1, 2026 | Chile | 400,000 |
| Week 2, 2026 | Peru | 3.1 million |
| Week 2, 2026 | Chile | 500,000 |
| Week 2, 2025 | Peru | 3.1 million |
| Week 2, 2025 | Chile | 1.4 million |
Shipments from Central Chile down significantly
After two weeks of lower volumes from Chile, the industry is starting to believe that Chile is shipping a lower volume this year. Total volume from the country is expected to be down 10 percent this season, but there seem to be some regional differences. First of all, production volume from Central Chile – the region that is shipping to the U.S. right now and overlaps with Peru - is down as they are transitioning out of older varieties and into newer varieties. This transition takes about three to four years. In addition, these newer varieties like Autumncrisp® are planted further south and hit the market during a later window, primarily March and April. With overall volume from Chile down 10 percent and the southern region growing in volume, Central Chile's volume is expected to be down well over 10 percent.
© Direct Source Marketing
Ruby Rush® grapes.
Peru's competitive advantage over Chile
Another reason for Chile's lower volumes this season is the fact that they've come to realize they have a disadvantage compared to Peru. The Systems Approach was suspended, and grapes need to be fumigated again prior to arrival in the U.S. Peru on the other hand uses cold treatment. "They have a large advantage over Chile as the cold chain for grapes from Peru never gets broken while Chilean grapes require the core temperature to be raised for fumigation, impacting the shelf-life," shared Greenstein. As a result of the difference in quality, U.S. retailers are showing a firm preference for grapes from Peru and Chile realizes they can only survive if they ship later on in the season, when Peru is starting to wind down.
The market is in balance
Lower shipments from Chile's Central region have resulted in a balanced market with the industry being in a really good place. Volumes are consistent and just enough to support lower prices and promotions. "We aren't inundated with volume but are seeing steady arrivals and prices hovering around $30-$34/box with some promotions of $28/box." This is a decrease of $10 compared to last month, making it much more attractive for consumers to buy grapes. Promotions are expected to continue through Valentine's Day. "The market is profitable for growers and due to the steady flow, retailers and consumers receive the freshest fruit possible, supporting repeat purchases." Everything seems to be aligned, creating a win-win for everyone. This was a very systematic change, and it took the market about four weeks to adjust.
© Direct Source Marketing
Autumncrisp® grapes.
Ica is best region for table grapes globally
Peru has shown very steady shipments this season with consistent volumes of about 3.1 million boxes weekly in recent weeks. However, the season will start winding down with volumes declining from Week 4 through Week 8. The success of their season can be attributed to the quality of Peru's grapes. "In my view, Peruvian growers produce the finest table grapes in the world," commented Greenstein. "The Ica Valley is God's gift to table grape growing as the region is undoubtedly the best growing region for table grapes globally."
For more information:
Ira Greenstein
Direct Source Marketing
Tel: +1 (914) 241-4434
[email protected]
www.directsourcemktg.com
