As the new apple season begins in Europe, processors are expected to face challenges due to lower yields and higher raw material costs.
In Poland and Turkey, two of the region's leading producers, orchards were impacted earlier in the year by frosts, hail, and heavy rains. In Poland, the largest producer in Europe, quality issues have been reported in early varieties, with damage varying across regions. More recently, heatwaves have also affected fruit quality, though some sources suggest growing conditions have improved in recent weeks.
Industry participants expect processors will struggle to secure sufficient volumes. One source told Expana, "This situation will affect all regions. All producers will struggle to purchase apples for their own production." In Turkey, severe frost in April is forecast to reduce apple yields by 20–25% year-on-year, with apple juice production likely to be hit. Market sources expect raw material costs to rise and production targets to be difficult to achieve.
The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) forecasts EU apple production for the 2025/26 season at 10.5 million metric tons, down just 0.1% compared with last year. However, this level represents a 7.5% decline from the five-year average.
At the Prognosfruit Conference in Angers, France, on August 11, Philippe Binard, secretary general of WAPA, highlighted broader concerns. "Despite a steady production forecast, the sector faces worrying uncertainties. Climate variability, a limited toolbox to manage biosecurity threats, labor shortage, rising costs not totally offset by market price, geopolitical instability, a volatile trade environment, and currency fluctuation are conditions that are clouding long-term visibility," he said.
Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) for European apple juice concentrate showed a 4.8% month-on-month decline as of July 31, with medium-acid apple concentrate fca Europe [Expana code: FJ05] priced at €2,000 (US$2,185) per metric ton. This reflects a quiet market period ahead of the new season.
Harvesting of early apple varieties has already begun in some regions, while Turkey's season is set to start in September. Market observers will monitor whether tightening supply conditions trigger an upward trend in apple juice prices in the coming months.
Source: Mintec/Expana
