South African avocado growers met at a study group hosted by the South African Avocado Growers' Association, where market conditions and production factors for the 2026 season were discussed. Presentations indicated increasing local supply alongside stronger global competition, while technical guidance focused on orchard management.
Local market under pressure
Production areas in KwaZulu-Natal have expanded to around 4,500 hectares, compared to approximately 1,500 hectares in the Southern Cape. New orchards in KwaZulu-Natal are entering production, contributing to higher supply levels.
Hail damage is expected to increase volumes of class 2 and 3 fruit entering the domestic market. This is likely to affect prices, particularly during overlapping harvest periods between KwaZulu-Natal, from June to December, and the Southern Cape, from August to January.
Historical data shows that when volumes reached 3,700 tons in March 2025, prices declined to R50 (US$2.7) per carton. When supply decreased in November and December, prices increased to between R110 and R120 (US$5.9 to US$6.5).
Export outlook
Europe remains the main export market, although competition is increasing. Peru is forecasting a 20% increase in production, while Chile is planning higher late-season shipments.
Russia is developing as an alternative market. Access to India and China remains limited due to tariffs and fumigation requirements. Growers were advised to coordinate with exporters, adjust marketing strategies, and focus on fruit quality and timing.
Water and soil management
Water and soil conditions were also highlighted as factors affecting yields. Prof Leon van Rensburg presented on water use and salt levels in orchard soils, noting that soil quality can influence production over time.
Recommendations included monitoring soil conditions, managing water use, and maintaining soil structure. Data from a Northern Cape pecan case indicated that saline soil conditions can reduce growth by up to 18% and affect water absorption.
Outlook for Southern Cape growers
The discussion indicated that marketing strategy and product quality will influence returns, while early attention to soil conditions may help reduce production risks.
Source: George Herald
