The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts a strong likelihood of El Niño forming through 2026, which could directly impact agriculture in Ecuador.
Based on seasonal models, the equatorial Pacific is transitioning from La Niña to a neutral phase, with an expected gradual shift towards El Niño during the middle to later part of the year. Projections suggest that the event could develop into a moderate or even strong episode, depending on ocean warming in the upcoming months.
If this were to happen, Ecuador could experience increased rainfall, especially along the coast, which would heighten the risk of flooding and river overflow, as well as damage to crops and rural infrastructure. Additionally, different regions of the country could encounter changes in their normal weather patterns, making it more difficult to plan agricultural seasons.
The potential return of El Niño is raising concerns in the agricultural sector, as key crops like bananas, rice, maize, and cocoa could be impacted by excess humidity, increased pests and diseases, and challenges in harvesting and transportation.
Given this situation, agricultural experts advise enhancing preventive measures such as upgrading drainage systems, adjusting sowing times, continuously monitoring weather patterns, and developing phytosanitary strategies.
Although forecasts remain subject to revision in the upcoming months, the leading international centers agree that current conditions are becoming more favorable for the development of this climatic phenomenon.
Source: elproductor.com
