Mexico's mango harvest is currently concentrated in the southern regions Oaxaca and Chiapas. These regions are now peaking, and volumes are expected to be solid through April. Usually, from the south the season transitions into Nayarit around early to mid-May, but the state is late and reporting significantly less fruit than normal. The same problem is happening in Mexico's latest mango growing region Sinaloa. These two regions together grow the majority of mangoes in Mexico. With Mexico's peak season and the highest U.S. consumer demand being built around these regions, the outlook for the season is gloomy.
© Crespo Organic
Warm winter and pest pressure
"The main problem is a flower failure driven by a warm winter," says Nissa Pierson with Crespo Organic. Mango trees in these regions depend on sustained cool nights in winter and that cold never came. "Nights ran far warmer than normal and as a result, the trees kept pushing leaves instead of panicles." Because the cold window has now closed, yields will be significantly impacted.
Not only has the warm weather caused flowering problems, it has also resulted in challenges with pests. "An increase in fruit fly has been reported to have caused USDA rejections across southern states, with growers being concerned it could move north into Nayarit and Sinaloa." Warmer winters and erratic weather patterns increasingly create ideal conditions for pest pressure across the fresh produce spectrum, not just within the mango category.
As a result, the industry is facing uncertainty from the end of April, most likely through the rest of the season. While the exact start of the Nayarit season is uncertain, the expectation is that fruit will not arrive until early June rather than mid-to-late May. "This will create potential gapping issues that will require careful planning and strong partnerships to navigate," shared Pierson.
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Slightly better outlook for Sinaloa
Sinaloa suffered the same serious flowering problems as Nayarit, but the recent cooler nights have resulted in a better outlook than initially expected. "Nevertheless, overall volumes will be significantly reduced, and performance will vary by varietal with round mangoes faring the worst." In Rosario Sinaloa, where El Grupo Crespo is based, there seems to be a bit of a respite for the orchards as light rains have taken some stress off the trees and allowed more time for bloom. Some orchards already have fruit while others are just beginning to bloom. "The challenge is that fruit will move to maturity fast as a result of the heat, making it difficult to predict how the season will unfold exactly."
The packing house of El Grupo Crespo - Empaque Don Jorge - will open on April 10, packing fruit from Oaxaca and Michoacán. In addition, it will be ready to pack anything that's ready in the northern regions. Michoacán is reported as one of the worst performing areas this season. However, organic mango volumes from the state aren't significant for Crespo and an outlook has not been included in this article.
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Many unknowns
All in all, the unpredictable outlook for the season is caused by climate change. Flowering, fruit set, yields, timing, and sizing have all been affected. In addition, an ongoing serious drought in Sinaloa has compounded everything, pushing toward smaller fruit across the board. Nevertheless, the northern regions generally produce higher yields. "If any region can pull mangoes from thin air, it's Nayarit and Sinaloa," mentioned Pierson. Closer to the border, in more reliable transportation lanes, with larger packhouses and deeper infrastructure than the south — the north is equipped to move volume efficiently no matter the volume. "However, the big question mark this season is how much fruit there will be to move," she closed. As a result of all of this, pricing is on the higher end and not expected to come down.
For more information:
Nissa Pierson
Crespo Organic
Tel: +1 (347) 306-3286
[email protected]
www.crespoorganic.com
