U.S. demand for green seedless grapes exceeds supply and as a result, importers are very current and inventories are light. The green grape category is doing so well that demand exceeds even the best of the best red seedless grapes in a ratio of close to 3:1. Within the green grape category, Autumncrisp® is the big winner. "It is head and shoulders above everything else," says Ira Greenstein with Direct Source Marketing. "Autumncrisp continues to separate itself from all other green seedless varieties," he added. No other variety can come close to meeting that demand.
As a result of demand domination, there is also a sharp difference in pricing. Retail programs are paying about $36 - $38.00 FOB for a box of Autumncrisp while wholesalers pay between $40 and $44. Pricing for Chilean Sugraone for instance is significantly lower at $24 - $26/box. Red seedless varieties are selling between $20 and $24.
Exports from South America are down
With inventory on green seedless grapes being so low, it is important to watch the export numbers from South America. The magic number to maintain the U.S. market is to ship three million boxes weekly. In the past three weeks, that was exactly the number shipped on a weekly basis. "However, this number is just enough to maintain the market and meet demand," commented Greenstein. Compared to last season, exports from South America are down significantly. From week 1 through week 7 2025, exports from Peru and Chile to the U.S. amounted to 32 million boxes. During the same period this year, exports from the two countries reached just 23.6 million boxes. This means a decrease of 25 percent in comparison to last year.
© Direct Source Marketing
Tariffs cause uncertainty
What is causing that steep decline? "I believe it is a reflection of market demand in other regions around the world in combination with tariffs causing uncertainty," said Greenstein. This uncertainty made diversification a focus. With President Trump signing an executive order this week and imposing a 10 percent global tariff that could become 15% at some point, more uncertainty has been created. "There are a lot of unknowns at this point, but because South American growers have made significant commitments to the U.S., they find themselves in a very uncomfortable situation." While Chile heavily depends on the U.S. market, many Chilean growers are looking at alternative markets, if these markets can support the additional volume. Currently, demand from Europe is reasonable and growers are choosing to send fruit there.
Red seedless grapes
Despite grape import volumes being so much lower this season, the market is still struggling to sell red seedless grapes. Retailers are promoting red grapes, but there is plenty of volume in cold storage. The new Ruby Rush® grape is doing well but hasn't been able to separate itself like Autumncrisp has.
© Direct Source Marketing
SEPC
Direct Source Marketing will be exhibiting at SEPC for the very first time this year. Come and meet the team at booth #706 in Orlando this weekend.
For more information:
Ira Greenstein
Direct Source Marketing
Tel: +1 (914) 241-4434
[email protected]
www.directsourcemktg.com
