New Zealand primary sector exports are forecast to reach a record value of US$62 billion in the year ending June 30, 2026, according to the Ministry for Primary Industries' latest sector outlook. The projection represents a 3 per cent increase year on year and points to a stable but uncertain operating environment.
Ray Smith, director general of the Ministry for Primary Industries, said the outlook reflects moderate growth across most categories, with ongoing exposure to geopolitical tension and tariff-related uncertainty. At the same time, production capability has remained stable, and export markets have shown resilience.
Horticulture exports are forecast to increase by 5 per cent to US$9.2 billion, while forestry exports are projected to rise by 2 per cent to US$6.30 billion.
Horticulture continues to expand its contribution within the primary sector. Kiwifruit leads export performance, with shipments from New Zealand alone projected to reach US$4.3 billion by June 2026. Apples and pears are also forecast to exceed US$2 billion in export value.
Smith said the sector is operating in a complex trade environment. "The world wants our products, and the reason it relies on us is that what we are best at is producing and exporting food," he said.
Todd McClay said the export forecast reflects recovery despite recent weather-related disruptions and international uncertainty. He noted that exporter decision-making has adapted to risk, with some product flows shifting toward China and Europe due to returns and market conditions.
McClay said farm profitability has improved for a range of producers and that primary exports are supporting broader economic activity. He also cited efforts to simplify regulatory settings for rural businesses.
Horticulture minister Nicola Grigg said export data shows horticulture shipments rising from US$6.5 billion in 2021 to US$9.2 billion, with further growth projected.
Smith recently visited key export destinations, including Australia, the United States, Japan, Korea, and China. He said market counterparts highlighted trust in New Zealand products and production systems, while also noting the need for higher visibility in some markets compared with competing origins.
Source: RuralNews
