While banana supply is good with all producing countries at the peak of their banana season, there is some shifting happening on the demand and pricing side of the business. "I see people wanting to shift their supply chains around because of the tariffs. I know Ecuador also raised their prices and that, in conjunction with the tariffs, changed a lot of things," says Andy Thomas-Stivalet of Kavidac Produce, noting that the next round of contract negotiations for bananas is just ahead.
Regarding tariffs, all banana producing countries have had tariffs impact their pricing with the exception of Mexico. "Mexico hasn't raised their banana prices in conjunction with the rest so Mexican bananas now are really cheap in the United States," says Thomas-Stivalet.
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Category pricing changes
Pricing is also changing in other banana categories–Thomas-Stivalet says Fair Trade pricing went up 60-70 cents and Ecuador also raised the minimum price of bananas by 60-70 cents as well and then the tariffs are on top of that. "There's a big shift in the banana world on pricing and it's forced a lot of the chains in the U.S. to raise prices. The minimum suggested retail price has gone up almost everywhere by $.10, sometimes even $0.15 in some regions," he says.
Regarding demand, organic banana sales have softened by 35-30 percent for many U.S. retailers and it's possible that some consumers have shifted to conventional.
In major markets too such as Chicago, where bananas' close cousin, the plantain, is sold to mom and pop-type stores serving immigrant communities, those retailers are reporting a drop in consumption on plantains too by as much as 80 percent. "This has all been happening in the past eight weeks, particularly since the price hikes have started," says Thomas-Stivalet.
In fact, demand generally in the past eight weeks has looked different. "Traditionally in September, you have a big uptake in banana sales because of back to school. This year we had some of that, but it was a bit more sluggish than normal. Now, it's not like things are slow. They're just not as high as they might have been," he says.
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What's ahead next year
So what does this mean for the coming weeks and leading into 2026? "I think we'll see continued shifts. Since we're going into contract season, this is going to impact contracts a lot because the prices that a lot of the stores have is still favorable to them," Thomas-Stivalet notes, adding that while tariffs might be absorbed by the importers, that tariff increase might still fall to the consumer to make up for. "So we might see pricing still go up and it might be a little bit more volatile."
It could also be, more simply, that people are shifting their consumption patterns and shifting from organics to conventional for example. "That might continue. If price increases keep happening in the future after the negotiation contract season's over, it might be that there's more diminishing in organic sales or plantains and an increase in conventional or there may be a decrease all around. We're not sure," he says.
For more information:
Andy Thomas-Stivalet
Kavidac Produce
Tel: (+52) 962-625-3303
[email protected]
https://www.kavidac.com/
