South Africa sells around a fifth of its macadamias to the United States. Industry body Macadamias South Africa (SAMAC) has made the sums, South African media reports, and suggests that a 30% tariff imposed on macadamias could lead to annual losses of R460 million (25.7 million euros) to the industry.
The 2024/2025 macadamia harvest is mostly completed and deliveries to the cracking facilities are almost done, says Jan van der Merwe, general manager of Royal Macadamia, Levubu, and it's become clear that the volumes are down a lot, some growers reckon by as much as 30%.
© Carolize Jansen | FreshPlaza.com
Sorting shelled macadamias into various styles
Worldwide, a lower macadamia crop
The South African crop forecast for 2025 was adjusted downwards from an initial estimate of 93,433 tons DNIS (dry nuts-in-shell) to 85,166 tons DNIS.
At the start of July, in what they call "one of the most difficult and unpredictable seasons in recent years", the Australian Macadamia Society noted that some growers were reporting their lowest crops in a decade, and therefore the Australian forecast has also been "sharply downgraded".
The prospect of a 30% tariff on U.S. exports is certainly problematic, Van der Merwe observes, and they're keeping their options open. They won't be struggling to sell their nuts, though, he adds, except for certain styles traditionally sold to the U.S. markets. "We'll see how it plays out towards the end of the season. The quality wasn't as good on the nuts coming in at the end due to late insect damage and immatures."
China's 0% tempts exports away from U.S.
"The tariffs will definitely have an influence. We have already approached other non-traditional countries, and the prospects look promising."
The trade relationship between the US and China is also salient here. In May, SAMAC hosted Chinese agricultural wholesalers on a visit to South African macadamia orchards and cracking facilities.
The following month, China announced it would remove all trade tariffs on imported goods from 53 African countries after a gathering of ministerial coordinators for the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). "The South African macadamia industry will tend to focus more on the Chinese market," he says, "because of the zero-percentage point tariff introduced by China."
© Carolize Jansen | FreshPlaza.com
Slow American sales
Their U.S. clients mostly buy smaller nuts, "mostly style 4L nuts for the confectionery, cookies and cereals sector."
Style 4L nuts, Van der Merwe explains, are traditionally styles in excess of other styles, and most processors are currently sitting with an oversupply of style 4L nuts because the Americans haven't purchased as expected. American sales have been slow because of tariffs and price uncertainties. "There'll be a big impact on prices, without a doubt. At this stage, it looks like the costs for the increased tariffs will be borne by the consumer at one end, and the producer on the other."
The macadamia industry is waiting on tenterhooks to hear whether the South African government's trade representatives have done a deal with the United States before the end of the month.
© Carolize Jansen | FreshPlaza.comView from the Royal Macadamia cracking facility over Levubu
For more information:
Jan van der Merwe
Royal Macadamia
Tel: +27 15 151 0077
Email: [email protected]
https://royalmacadamia.co.za/
