At Youyi Port, situated on the China-Vietnam border within the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China, there has been a notable increase in fresh durian imports. In the initial quarter of the year, China imported 48,000 tons, with Vietnam contributing 35,000 tons, marking a 48.1% rise, and Thailand providing 13,000 tons. This trend suggests a potential 30% increase in Vietnamese durian exports to China by 2024, posing greater risks for Thailand, according to analysis by Mr. Ath Pisalvanich, an independent scholar and advisor to Intelligent Research Consultant Co., Ltd. (IRC).
Durian stands as a significant economic crop, with its exports estimated at 140 billion baht in 2023, surpassing rubber and cassava but still trailing behind rice. Durian exports represent 25% of the total value from the four main export crops. However, the future value of durian exports faces uncertainty, influenced by agricultural drought, increased exports from Vietnam, and rising transportation costs to China. The Durian Risk Index (DURI) for 2024 is rated at 57, indicating high risk.
Over the last 12 years, Thai durian production has surged by 180%, attributed to an 80% increase in cultivation areas. Conversely, Vietnam's durian production has seen a 200% increase over the past decade. For 2024, Vietnam's durian exports to China are expected to reach 500,000 tons, while Thailand's exports might decrease to 800,000 tons. Notably, the production cost of durian in Thailand is twice that of Vietnam's, further complicating Thailand's competitive position in the market.
Source: khaosodenglish.com