The South African agricultural sector is being warned to prepare and plan as the El Niño climate pattern is expected to further develop between June and July in South Africa. El Niño is the warming of sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It influences atmospheric circulation and, consequently, rainfall and temperature in specific areas around the world. El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) phenomena.
As this El Niño cycle looms in southern Africa, agricultural economists warn that if it is intense, it could seriously affect agricultural conditions.
Wandile Sihlobo, the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz), said South Africa had had four seasons of cooling La Niña-induced heavy rains from 2019/20 to 2022/23 that supported agriculture, leading to higher yields across various field crops, fruits and vegetables.
However, if the El Niño is intense, Sihlobo warned this could resemble the bleak agricultural conditions witnessed during the last El Niño drought in the 2015/16 season (before the Day Zero scenario in Cape Town), where crop yields dropped markedly.
Source: iol.co.za