The orange output in the citrus belt in southeastern Brazil (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2023/24 season is estimated at 309.34 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. This volume is 1.5% lower than that harvested last season.
The major reasons for the lower harvest are rains above the historical average (although they have favored both the vigor of trees and fruits growth, rains raised flower rotting), the negative biennial cycle (except for northern SP, where productivity was lower last season), lower blooming for some late varieties (whose harvesting was delayed and/or production was high in 2022/23) and the higher incidence of greening, which is expected to raise the rate of fruit fall. On the other hand, high moisture may favor fruits weight, which may be the highest since 2017/18.
As for productivity, the average forecast for the citrus belt is at 918 boxes per hectare, a slight 0.6% up from that in the 2022/23 season.
Source: cepea.esalq.usp.br