Soft citrus
Chilean clementine arrivals in North America have slowed substantially. Fewer than 500 metric tons were loaded to the US East Coast in week 31 and 360 metric tons were loaded that week to the US West Coast. In Week 32 it was only odds and ends loaded to each coast as the transition to late mandarins began. In the end, Chile will have shipped over 42,000 metric tons of clementines to the USA this season in an almost equal split between the east and west coasts. This represents an increase of almost 53% over the clementine volume shipped in 2015.
But the W. Murcotts are on the way and they are off to an auspicious start. Through Week 32, Chile has loaded 5,210 metric tons of late mandarins to the US East Coast and 2,365 metric tons to the US West Coast Taken together, this is more than five times the volume shipped over the same period last year.
The increased volume reflects the fact that Chile has both an early crop and a large crop. Last year, Chilean growers shipped 42,350 metric tons, or 2.6 million cases, of late mandarins to North America. It is expected that this could grow to 57,000 metric tons or 3.5 million cases this season. If that is indeed the case, it will be good to have a head start!
The relatively early start to the Chilean late mandarins means that there will be no substantial gap in supply as the market transitions from clementines to W. Murcotts. This will be disappointing to early shippers who have in the past seen a bump in price on the changeover. That phenomenon will be increasingly rare as Chilean production increases each year.
The early arrival of the Chilean late mandarin crop also means that it will collide more directly with Peruvian W. Murcotts. The competition between the Peruvian and Chilean W. Murcotts has usually been limited to the margins of the season as Peruvian volumes are generally winding down as Chile’s volume ramps up. But when the first Chilean late mandarins arrive in the market next week Peru will still be a market factor and will continue as such for some weeks.
Rounding out the easy peeler offering on the US East Coast market are late soft citrus varieties from South Africa and Uruguay.
But the soft citrus market has been steadily gaining strength over the last three weeks and sits today at a remarkably stable US$ 34 – 36 (mostly US$ 34) for product sold in a 10 x 3 lbs. bag format. The heavy arrivals of Chilean W. Murcotts that are expected in Week 34 and onward will likely limit any significant price increases. Only an interruption or limitation in supply would bump prices and none is planned or expected.
With autumn on the way and children back in school in the next two weeks, we can expect soft citrus consumption to continue to increase. It will be good to have the Chilean late mandarins available for sale in September and October rather than have to wait until late-October when domestic product starts to knock at the door.