On Wednesday May 25th, over 70 growers, shippers and industry leaders of the Northwest Cherry industry met to discuss the 2016 Northwest cherry crop. The group meets annually to discuss crop potential across all growing districts and formulates a crop estimate based on attendee input. The 5-State estimate is often the most accurate look at the crop as it is in real time, provided by growers who have walked out of their orchards and into the meeting.
The Northwest Cherry Growers group met with growers, visited packing sheds, and looked at orchards. One thing is abundantly clear. From this they gathered that the quality of the cherries is high and growers are excited. As reported in earlier estimates, the Bing variety didn't set well this year. Some Bing orchards are nearly devoid of cherries. They’re not damaged; the cherries just simply aren't there. In other words, in some orchards the Bing flower never became a cherry this year. It is important to note that Bing is only one of many sweet cherry varieties in the Northwest. Most of the other varieties appear to have full crops, which when combined are estimated to lead to the industry’s 5th largest crop ever.
Those insights and observations, along with the cumulative experience presented at the meeting of the 5-States on Wednesday, are collected and presented in the crop update below.
The 5-State estimate for 2015 is 184,000 metric tons or 18.4 million 20 lb. equivalent boxes. As of 28th May the industry is predicting a crop that will be down 4% from last year’s 19.3 million box crop. However, a crop of 18.4 million boxes is substantial.
The Northwest experienced a “flash” cherry bloom across the Northwest this year, resulting in one of the shortest bloom durations the industry has seen. Traditionally, this makes for consistent fruit size, sugar and flavor throughout the tree, leading to what many are calling a “vintage crop."
Growing Degree Day (GDD) data continues to be either the furthest or second furthest ahead by this date in all growing districts. It is important to note that the separation in Degree Days by district is very positive, with the Tri-Cities area being 550 degree days ahead of the later harvesting regions of North Central Washington. Normally the early and late districts would be separated by only 450 to 490 degree days. However, the bloom by region was a bit compressed and as a result, growers across the five states expect to have significant volume in June through the middle of July … and will wind down quickly with only a few ultra-high elevation orchards being harvested in August this year.
This sends a message that to maximize cherry category contribution to the produce department the retail trade will need to have large and up front displays of cherries from early June through at least mid-July … as the 2016 season will be over for another year. In the United States … the crop is lining up perfectly for both Father’s Day and 4th of July promotions.