The AgriSA Agriculture Annual Trade Report 2025 outlines South Africa's agricultural trade performance between 2021 and 2025, showing continued growth alongside exposure to biosecurity risks, infrastructure bottlenecks, and global trade distortions. The report states that without reform, growth may not be sustained.
Johann Kotzé, CEO of AgriSA, said the sector must consolidate gains while addressing constraints. "The question is no longer whether strategic investment is warranted, but whether it will be mobilised in time to secure long-term competitiveness," he said.
South Africa's agricultural exports reached US$14.2 billion in 2025, up 8.8% year-on-year, while imports rose to US$7.6 billion, up 1.6%, resulting in a trade surplus of US$6.6 billion, up 16.4%. Horticulture generated a net surplus of US$6.8 billion, offset by an agronomy deficit of US$0.5 billion.
Citrus exports contributed an estimated US$0.63 billion to the increase in the trade surplus, accounting for around 67% of the total expansion. The report notes that reliance on citrus creates concentration risk, with 35% to 40% of exports directed to the EU, placing between US$0.53 billion and US$1.06 billion in annual export revenue at risk.
Livestock recorded a US$0.3 billion surplus, supported by fish and lamb exports. Lamb exports rose by 677% since 2021 to US$0.06 billion.
Market diversification has supported trade performance, with losses in the U.S. offset by growth in Africa, the EU, and BRICS+ markets. Russia recorded the highest growth among major destinations, while Saudi Arabia expanded due to demand for halal lamb. Exports to Africa reached US$5.0 billion, representing about 34% of total agricultural exports. However, these markets are not yet sufficient to offset disruptions in key destinations.
Market access conditions are becoming less predictable. "As access conditions in traditional export markets like the EU and US become more volatile and compliance costs rise, exporters face greater difficulty in planning long-term investments, managing risk, and sustaining established market positions. This is […] increasing the importance of continuous trade diplomacy and regulatory engagement."
EU requirements on environmental standards, pesticide use, traceability, and sustainability are increasing compliance costs. The citrus sector faces exposure, with US$1.2 billion to US$1.5 billion in exports to the EU and UK linked to regulatory risks.
Global trade fragmentation is also influencing export conditions. "Agricultural exporters face greater exposure to political disruptions, pressure to align with specific blocs, and risks of being affected by disputes unrelated to commercial performance.
"At the same time, fragmentation creates opportunities for South Africa to position itself as a reliable supplier," the report states.
AgriSA projects that by 2028, the agricultural trade surplus could range from US$4.5 billion to US$9.5 billion. The report states that maintaining the current US$6.6 billion surplus depends on phytosanitary compliance, disease containment, and improvements in port infrastructure.
Source: Farmer's Weekly
