"Rainfall in the previous two seasons was favorable, boosting yields and resulting in larger fruit sizes. There was a high supply of 40 and 48-caliber avocados, particularly in higher elevation areas of the region. At present, large sizes are still in good supply and sell well, although the market demand is gradually moving toward smaller sizes," stated Manuel Cerda Morales, president of the Association of Avocado Producers and Exporters of the State of Mexico (Apeamex).
© Apeamex
Things may change in 2026. "Unseasonal rains, hail, and frost in Michoacán and the State of Mexico have already caused damage to some orchards. Heavy hail can practically destroy all production in some areas, which could translate into lower volumes and upward pressure on prices," Cerda warns.
© Apeamex
Prices have remained stable throughout the 2025 season, which will continue until May or June. "Currently, the Mexican avocado is traded at around 20 pesos per kilo (about $1.15-$1.20), also influenced by the weakness of the dollar." According to Cerda, this situation mainly affects packers, although in the long run it also impacts growers' income. Toward the end of the season, prices could rise to 25-30 pesos.
Consumption in the US remains vital for the sector. During the recent Super Bowl, a record approximately 130,000 tonnes were sold—about 10% of Mexico's yearly avocado consumption in that market. However, Cerda notes that "the migratory situation is affecting consumer habits. The fear of immigration raids has decreased the number of buyers in some Latin American communities, which are typically major avocado consumers."
© Apeamex
On a structural level, the sector is watching with interest the recent acquisition of Calavo by Mission Produce. "They are the world's largest avocado companies and could account for up to 35% of purchases in Mexico. Although it is still too early to assess its impact, the sector remains expectant about the possible effects on price dynamics and the relationship with producers," Cerda stated.
© Apeamex For more information:
Manuel Cerda Morales
APEAMEX
Mexico
Tel: +52 452 526 1156
Email: [email protected]
www.apeamex.mx
