The South African grape season is unfolding very differently from what was expected beforehand. "This is primarily due to the poor performance at the Cape Town port. Since the start of the season, the port has been under pressure because of strong winds. In fact, statistics show this is the worst year since records began. We see vessels taking one to two weeks longer to depart," says Eddy Kreukniet of Exsa Europe.
"Of course, there are alternatives, such as the new line from Port Elizabeth and conventional vessel loading from another location in Cape Town harbour, but overall it makes for a somewhat unusual market. We had expected large volumes of grapes to arrive in Europe shortly after Christmas, but those volumes keep shifting. You also see this reflected in the price trend, because a month ago I predicted prices would be at least 1 to 2 euros lower than they are today," Eddy continues.
Eddy, Fleur and Stijn Kreukniet
"But there is a large volume on the way, as the harvest in South Africa is good. All growers are ahead of last year's pace, but this is not yet reflected in the export statistics due to the delays. The harvest also looks solid for the coming weeks. Weather conditions along the Orange River are favourable, and the forecast for the Western Cape is also very good. The quality of the harvested grapes is good, although due to the delays, I do expect quality issues to emerge with incoming fruit in the coming week."
"All in all, it is a rather peculiar overseas season. It began with Brazil and Peru shipping large volumes of grapes, while the European season also continued for an extended period. That created a dip in prices in October and November, and also affected quality. Fruit needed to leave the market, which is why the initial delays from South Africa were, at first, a 'blessing in disguise'. Now, however, those delays are becoming increasingly frustrating," Eddy observes.
Varietal inflation
"We have seen rapid investment in new varieties in recent years. That development has been quite intense, but by now there appears to be a form of varietal inflation. Larger growers, in particular, seem to be consolidating around fewer varieties. That also makes sense, as constantly switching varieties in the warehouse takes a lot of time. Breeders will need a strong story to justify introducing large volumes of new varieties."
According to Eddy, Europe remains the most important market for South African and Namibian exporters. "As much as 70 to 75% goes to the EU and the UK, while other markets are hardly growing. Canada and the U.S. are taking slightly more grapes, but in Asia, competition from Peru and India is strong," he says. The Indian season has been delayed this year due to the moderate weather in the autumn. "As a result, the season is starting a bit later. This will most likely lead to a small correction in volume, but since India exported only 14% of the total volume last year, that soup will not be eaten as hot as it is served."
For more information:
Eddy Kreukniet
Exsa Europe
Tel: +31 88 735 0003
Mob: +31 620 25 78 11
[email protected]
www.exsaeurope.com
