China's table grape exports are forecast to increase by 16 per cent in the 2025/26 marketing year, reaching 770,000 metric tons. If achieved, China would match Peru as the world's largest table grape exporter for the first time, after surpassing Chile last season. Table grape production in China is forecast at 15.0 million tons, up 6 per cent year on year. While planted area has stabilised, yield gains have continued due to the use of rain shelters and year-round varieties. As a result, China has more than doubled its exports over the past four years while reducing import dependence. Imports are forecast at 100,000 tons, down 45 per cent compared with four years ago.
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China's table grape exports are mainly destined for Southeast Asia, with Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia accounting for nearly 60 per cent of shipments. In these markets, China holds more than 70 per cent market share, supported by geographic proximity. By contrast, Peru and Chile ship most of their table grapes to North America and Europe, where they compete with each other and South Africa during the December to April window.
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Global fresh apple production is forecast to decline by 5 per cent to 81.7 million tons, the lowest level in five years. Smaller crops in China and Turkey more than offset higher production in the United States. China's apple output is forecast to fall by 2.3 million tons to 47.0 million due to reduced acreage and unfavourable weather. Turkey's production is projected to go down 57 per cent to 2.0 million tons following severe spring frost. U.S. production is forecast up 256,000 tons to 5.0 million, driven by a larger crop in Washington State. Global apple consumption and exports are both forecast to be lower, with U.S. exports rising to 890,000 tons while Turkey's exports fall sharply to 65,000 tons.
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Global fresh pear production is projected to decline 2 per cent to 26.1 million tons, mainly due to lower output in China and Turkey. China's production is forecast to go down 480,000 tons to 20.5 million because of drought in Shandong and Shaanxi. Turkey's output is expected to fall 30 per cent to 461,000 tons following frost damage. U.S. pear production is forecast to rise to 565,000 tons, though volumes remain historically low. Global pear exports are forecast at 2.0 million tons, with higher shipments from China, the United States, and the European Union offsetting reduced exports from Turkey.
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Global fresh table grape production is forecast to increase to 30.0 million tons, driven by growth in China, India, the European Union, and Peru. Global exports are forecast at 4.2 million tons, supported by higher shipments from China and Peru, while U.S. table grape imports are expected to rise slightly to 915,000 tons.
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