Blueberries have become one of the crops most exposed to climate variability. Loss of chill hours, water constraints, new pest pressures, and rising adaptation costs are altering production models across Latin America and Africa. The crop's requirements for defined chilling, stable temperatures during flowering and harvest, and reliable irrigation place it at risk as global temperatures rise. The IPCC reports a 1.2°C increase above pre-industrial levels, influencing fruit set, colour, and post-harvest quality.
Latin America adjusts to shifting conditions
Chile is seeing reduced chilling hours in its central region, affecting bud break, fruit size, and uniformity. Production is moving south as the central valley becomes less competitive due to climate variability and higher management costs. In Peru, export growth depends on efficient irrigation, but heat waves linked to El Niño and advancing salinisation threaten the system. Forecasts show increased water stress by 2030. Mexico reports shifts in flowering and altered phenology in Michoacán and Jalisco, affecting pollination and fruit condition. Argentina is moving production to cooler Patagonian areas, though with logistical and infrastructure constraints.
Africa expands with climate pressure
Morocco, which supplies Europe early in the season, faces heat events above 40°C and growing water demand in the Loukkos Valley. Productivity risk by 2035 highlights the need for water-use efficiency and shading infrastructure. In South Africa, higher temperatures open new zones for blueberry development, but competition for water with other fruit crops intensifies. Zimbabwe is using blueberries for diversification, though water limitations and dependence on imported varieties remain barriers.
Physiological and pest impacts
Reduced chilling hours disrupt bud break, while high night temperatures limit anthocyanin formation, reducing colour and shelf life. Ripening becomes uneven. Climate change is expanding the range of diseases such as botrytis and Phytophthora and insects, including Drosophila suzukii, increasing production costs and lowering margins.
Economic and logistical pressures
Adaptation requires investments in precise irrigation, shading structures, radiation nets, pre-cooling, and digital monitoring. Estimates show production costs in South America have risen 18 per cent in four years. Heat waves complicate maintenance of the cold chain, particularly in ports in Peru and Morocco, raising energy use in markets where Europe and North America are tightening sustainability standards.
Innovation and adaptation gaps
Breeding programs are developing low-chill and heat-tolerant varieties, while precision farming tools support irrigation and nutrition adjustments. However, adoption remains uneven, with small growers in Latin America and Africa often lacking access to climate finance, insurance, and technical support.
A production shift is underway
By 2050, suitable blueberry zones in the southern hemisphere are projected to shift 200 to 500 kilometres south and to higher altitudes in the north. Areas such as southern Chile, highland Mexico, and elevated regions of Morocco may gain relevance as traditional zones lose capacity.
The industry is moving from an expansion model to one focused on resilience, water efficiency, genetics, and verified sustainability as climate variability becomes a daily operational factor.
Source: Blueberries Consulting
