African exports to the Northern Hemisphere are increasing, rising from 66,923 tons in 2021 to 119,123 tons in 2025. The growth reflects a shift from a supplementary supply role to a counter-seasonal position in global trade flows.
The increase in volumes, alongside infrastructure development, is changing sourcing strategies. By 2026, climate conditions in Morocco, longer transit times via the Cape Route, and cost pressures are influencing production and logistics decisions, with greater emphasis on post-harvest shelf life and operational efficiency.
Climate conditions in Morocco are expected to affect supply during March and April. Forecasts for regions such as Agadir and Larache indicate temperature anomalies that may reduce fruit size during peak production. This may limit the availability of higher-grade products and influence pricing, with estimates reaching US$7.38 per kg.
"The projected deficit in the north creates a gap in premium supply that should be strategically capitalized on by South Africa and Zimbabwe to capture marginal returns that, under normal conditions, would be out of their reach."
Geopolitical developments in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf are affecting logistics. The diversion via the Cape Route adds approximately 12 days to transit, increasing pressure on product condition at arrival. This is driving demand for varieties with extended shelf life and influencing varietal selection.
Zimbabwe is increasing its presence with export volumes of 5,319 tons, focusing on labour efficiency and output per resource. This approach allows producers to manage rising costs and logistics constraints.
Rising freight and energy costs, estimated at an increase of 15 per cent, are reducing exporter margins by around 6 per cent. In response, exporters are shifting towards higher-value segments, including air freight for larger fruit sizes of 22 mm and above, targeting markets such as Guangzhou and Dubai.
Access to premium European retail channels is increasingly linked to compliance with water and carbon footprint certification requirements. Without these, access to higher-value markets is limited.
The export model is shifting from volume-based supply towards value-driven strategies, focusing on logistics performance, product specification, and compliance with market requirements.
Source: Blueberries Consulting
