Scotiabank's Department of Economic Studies projects that in 2024 Peru will export a similar volume of avocado as in 2023, the year in which production was affected by climatic anomalies. Despite a possible decrease in the export volume due to higher temperatures associated with the El Niño phenomenon, prices are expected to increase compensating for this drop.
Estimates indicate that avocado export revenues will stand at around 970 million dollars in 2024, a similar level to the 964 million dollars achieved in 2023. This year's average export price is expected to stand at 1.80 dollars per kilogram, i.e. 12% more than last year's 1.61 dollars per kilogram average, mainly due to a reduction in global supply.
According to information from Prohass, California's avocado supply is expected to fall by between 20% and 30% due to climatic factors. Spain and Portugal's productions would be affected by water shortages. Chile has decreased its relevance as an avocado exporter, concentrating its production in the domestic market, and Colombia has increased shipments, but they only account for 3% of the global supply.
In 2024, Peru is expected to export approximately 540,000 tons of avocado. This is 10% less than in the previous year, a decrease caused by the effects of the El Niño phenomenon. However, the absence of intense rains would not affect the quality of the fruit.
Peru is the world's second-largest avocado exporter, accounting for about 20% of the total volume traded, only surpassed by Mexico, which accounts for 36% of world shipments.
Source: elcomercio.pe
