British Apples & Pears Limited (BAPL) has commissioned an independent analysis to assess the likely impact of the current conflict in Iran on production costs for British apple and pear growers.
According to Andersons Midlands, inflation since 1 March 2026 has already added £31.30 per ton to the cost of growing UK Gala apples this year. Combined with the original 2026 forecast increase of £32 per ton, total Gala apple production costs are now expected to rise by £63.30 per ton in 2026, equivalent to 6.3 pence per kilo or a 4.5% increase overall. The main cost increases relate to fertiliser, fuel, electricity, packaging, and transport.
BAPL said the latest pressures follow the inflation seen after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. During that period, British apple growers saw production costs rise by around 30% over two years, while supermarket returns increased by only 8%. Labour, energy, fertiliser, packaging, and storage costs all rose sharply.
© British Apples & Pears
BAPL said there is concern that further inflation linked to the Middle East conflict could create another period where grower returns fail to match rising production costs.
According to the organisation's latest Orchard and Storage Census, planned orchard planting over the next three years is around 32% below the average planting rate of the previous five years. Growers need to plant around 369 hectares of new orchard annually to maintain the current orchard area, but current intentions suggest only around 145 hectares per year will be planted.
BAPL said lower profitability and reduced reinvestment have already slowed orchard renewal and may further limit investment in orchards, storage, technology, and future production.
Ali Capper, Executive Chair of British Apples & Pears Limited, said: "After one of the best harvest years we've ever had in 2025, British apple and pear growers are once again facing significant cost inflation caused by global events entirely beyond their control.
"The latest increases in fertiliser, fuel, electricity, packaging and transport costs come on top of several years of already rising production costs and squeezed margins.
"We have already seen the consequences when grower returns fail to keep pace with inflation. Profitability is reduced, businesses come under pressure, orchard renewal slows, and investment decisions are delayed.
"There is a real opportunity for retailers and growers to work together to ensure these additional costs are recognised fairly across the supply chain."
BAPL is also urging retailers to follow the Groceries Code Adjudicator's seven golden rules on cost price increases, including clear communication, fair decision-making, recognition of pressures on smaller suppliers, and avoiding delisting threats during negotiations.
© British Apples & PearsFor more information:
British Apples & Pears
Tel: +44 (0) 1507 353778
Email: [email protected]
www.britishapplesandpears.co.uk
