New Zealand's fruit-growing regions are entering key harvest windows for apples, grapes, and kiwifruit as late summer transitions into autumn. Growers are assessing conditions for the March to April harvest period following a variable start to February.
Although a technical La Niña phase is in place, its influence on weather patterns is weak, and conditions are trending neutral. ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) probabilities indicate a 70 to 85 per cent likelihood of neutral conditions through to the end of April, with La Niña probabilities expected to decline to below 10 per cent by March. Under neutral settings, short to medium-range variability becomes more relevant for operational planning.
Weather conditions through late February and into early autumn are broadly supportive of harvest activity, particularly in Hawke's Bay and the Bay of Plenty.
In Hawke's Bay, orchard reports indicate low disease pressure following favourable spring conditions. Fruit condition is reported as clean, with volumes tracking well. Early fruit has shown softer characteristics due to warmer conditions compared with last season. With clearer and cooler nights under high-pressure systems, colour development is expected to progress. Irrigation management remains a focus, with post-harvest irrigation planned for early-pick apple varieties.
Stable, high-pressure systems are expected to provide harvest windows in the region. For grapes, warm conditions under persistent high pressure increase the need for disease monitoring.
In the Bay of Plenty, kiwifruit crops are reported to carry high crop loads. Forecasted drier weather is expected to assist dry matter accumulation ahead of harvest. Orchard managers are monitoring picking windows under improved conditions.
Central Otago differs from northern regions, with cooler, wetter, and windier weather patterns persisting through December and January. Weekly rainfall below 24 millimetres provided limited benefit during cherry harvest but may support soil moisture ahead of the apple harvest. Southerly and south-westerly wind patterns are forecast to continue.
Looking ahead, there is an emerging probability of El Niño conditions developing through winter, with projections reaching around 60 per cent by October. However, seasonal transition into the next cycle will depend on how atmospheric patterns align with ENSO drivers in the coming months.
Source: HortNews
