After a year-end characterised by high temperatures and limited rainfall, particularly from mid-December onward, precipitation returned to Brazilian producing regions in January 2026. Despite the rainfall, temperatures remained elevated during parts of the month, and concerns persist regarding fruit development for the 2026/27 crop. Excessive heat and, in some locations, fruit drop at different growth stages have continued to be reported.
From mid-January, rainfall volumes increased across several regions. Accumulated precipitation exceeded 100 mm in multiple areas of São Paulo state and parts of Minas Gerais. In Limeira, São Paulo, data from the National Institute of Meteorology shows rainfall reaching 228 millimetres by January 21.
In recent days, a cold front moved through producing areas, bringing stronger winds and lower temperatures. This shift increased thermal amplitude, which is another factor that can negatively affect crop development. According to Cepea sources, the combination of fluctuating temperatures, earlier heat stress, and uneven rainfall distribution continues to influence orchard conditions.
At this stage, agents indicate that it remains too early to make precise projections for the 2026/27 season. Weather patterns are expected to remain the main variable affecting production prospects in the coming months, with ongoing monitoring required as crop development progresses.
Source: HF Brasil
