Asia has shifted the balance in the global frozen fries market over the past year, driven by sharply lower selling prices and rapid expansion of processing capacity in countries such as China and India. These suppliers have gained market share, forcing producers in the United States and Northwest Europe to adjust strategies amid sustained price pressure.
For decades, Europe and North America dominated frozen fries production and trade. Recent reports indicate this dominance is eroding as export growth from lower-cost Asian suppliers and changing consumption patterns reshape trade flows. This shift is increasingly viewed as structural rather than cyclical.
Global demand for frozen fries continues to increase. Market estimates place the sector at US$17 billion to US$25 billion in 2024/25, with projections rising to US$24 billion to US$30 billion by 2033. Annual growth expectations range between 3 per cent and 5 per cent. The wider frozen potato products market is estimated at around €66 billion, approximately US$71 billion, with expected growth of about 5.5 per cent.
Traditional producers are facing reduced pricing power. In Northwest Europe, cold stores remain heavily stocked, limiting processors' ability to benefit from low free potato prices. In North America, acreage is being managed more strictly through contracts, resulting in a more stable but less volume-driven market.
Demand growth is supported by the continued global expansion of fast food chains, rising consumption of convenience foods, and advances in freezing and cold storage technology. Retail trends such as bulk formats, online grocery platforms, and increased household use of air fryers are also supporting consumption.
On the supply side, Europe is dealing with overproduction. In 2025, the area planted to fries potatoes in the four main Northwest European producing countries increased by nearly 60,000 hectares. France and Germany accounted for around 43,000 hectares of this growth, while table potato area expanded by about 14,000 hectares in the Netherlands and Belgium. Combined with strong yields, this has resulted in large stocks and low market prices.
Asia, meanwhile, is expanding production rapidly. China is increasing exports of frozen fries, while India continues to post export growth at low price levels. Egypt is also strengthening its position through early harvest timing and expanding processing capacity.
Reports highlight an ongoing international price competition. In markets such as Japan and Thailand, Indian and Chinese suppliers are offering prices up to 30 per cent below European and U.S. levels, leading to average import price declines of 10 per cent to 20 per cent across parts of Asia.
Source: DCA Market Intelligence / Potato News Today
