The avocado industry in New Zealand is facing changes in land ownership similar to those across rural sectors, according to a recently released white paper from Rabobank.
The paper shows that over the next decade, more than half of New Zealand's farm and orchard owners, around 17,320 farmers and growers, will reach the age of 65. At current land values, the transition of these operations represents a conservative estimate of more than NZ$150 billion (about US$90 billion) in farming assets that will depend on successful succession processes.
NZ Avocado chief executive Brad Siebert said the shift would create both opportunities and challenges for growers and the wider industry. He said ownership, financing, and management structures were already changing within horticulture, including the avocado sector.
"Some are planning succession, others are considering scaling, selling, or partnering to stay competitive," he said. "Where family succession is possible, new generations often bring a fresh focus on technology, sustainability, and diversified income. Where it's not, the likely outcome is consolidation through larger managed businesses or through alternative land use."
Siebert said these developments could bring investment and operational efficiencies, while also influencing industry decision-making. He pointed to land use intensity, productivity, regulatory compliance, access to finance, and regional policy as factors that will affect how ownership patterns evolve. He added that it is important for growers' needs to be represented, regardless of orchard size, as the industry adjusts.
"As ownership patterns evolve, the industry's role in advocating for growers' political and economic interests will be to support its members through the transition, not simply react to it," he said. "Ultimately, it's not just who owns the orchards that will define our future, but how growers choose to shape their businesses and the land they depend on."
Rabobank New Zealand chief executive Todd Charteris said the findings highlighted the scale of the succession challenge across agriculture. "Succession is not a moment in time, it's a process that takes years of planning, conversation, and adaptation," he said.
The paper found that only one in three farmers has a formal succession plan in place. A further 17 per cent have discussed succession without documenting it, while 50 per cent have neither discussed nor begun planning. Although one third intend to pass farms to their children, 39 per cent reported having no children seriously interested in farming.
Charteris noted that while financial barriers remain, data suggest the challenge has stabilised in recent years. The paper also identified emerging succession models, including hybrid ownership and corporate structures, as well as Māori-owned incorporation models, which are increasingly used to keep families connected to land and farming operations.
He added that many farmers involved in the research had been considering succession for years and wished they had started earlier.
Source: SunLive
