The European Union is moving toward a final decision on its proposed trade agreement with the Latin American Mercosur bloc, with a decisive vote scheduled for Friday. The European Commission is expected to issue a declaration this week aimed at addressing concerns raised by several member states that have so far withheld support for the deal.
According to five officials with direct knowledge of the discussions, the declaration may include reassurances linked to support for European farmers. These reassurances could be tied to funding under the EU's next seven-year budget cycle, running from 2028 to 2034, and are seen as a key factor in securing backing from Italy.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni withdrew support for the deal ahead of an EU leaders' summit in Brussels last month, following pressure from Italy's farming sector. Under EU voting rules, approval requires a qualified majority of at least 15 of the EU's 27 member states, representing 65 per cent of the bloc's population. With its large population, Italy effectively holds a swing vote.
If the Commission can offer clarity on financial measures for farmers, this could help offset concerns over a proposed reduction of around one-fifth in funding under the Common Agricultural Policy, the EU's main framework for agricultural subsidies.
France and Poland remain the primary opponents of the Mercosur agreement, which would establish a free-trade area with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. However, without Italy's opposition, these countries and their allies would not have enough votes to block the deal.
Ahead of the vote, EU farm ministers have been invited to Brussels on Wednesday for a stocktaking meeting. The session follows protests by European farmers in December and is intended to review the current state of discussions. The meeting will be hosted by Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, Agriculture and Food Commissioner Christophe Hansen, Health and Animal Welfare Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi, and Cyprus Agriculture Minister Maria Panayiotou, as Cyprus currently holds the EU Council presidency.
If approved, the agreement would conclude negotiations that began more than 25 years ago. It would create a free-trade area covering more than 700 million people and remove tariffs on 90 per cent of EU exports. In that scenario, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen could travel to Paraguay as early as next week to formally sign the agreement.
The outcome of the vote on the 9th of January will determine whether the deal proceeds to signature or remains stalled after decades of negotiation.
Source: Politico
