Latin American agricultural exports are under pressure as the United States pursues a more protectionist approach. Analysts note that while the policy shift brings risks, it also creates opportunities for modernization and diversification.
Immediate challenges
Agricultural trade experts highlight three main areas of concern: market access, labor, and regulations. Access to the U.S. market under competitive conditions is becoming increasingly uncertain.
"An increase in tariffs or border controls can reduce the competitiveness of fresh crops that are highly dependent on logistics and export speed, such as berries or table grapes," explains a recent report by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
Labor availability is another pressing issue. With stricter immigration policies, hiring seasonal workers has become more costly. "Seasonal agricultural workers are essential to the agroindustry; without them, productivity drops sharply," emphasizes an analysis by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
At the same time, requirements for traceability and certification are expanding. "It's not just about exporting fruit; it's about demonstrating sustainability, safety, and compliance with increasingly strict standards," notes a study by Rabobank.
Opportunities and tension
Specialists argue that the current scenario also opens up opportunities. One strategy is market diversification. According to FAOSTAT, fresh fruit consumption in China has increased at an annual rate of more than 5% over the past decade, making it a growing destination for Latin American exporters.
Another option is value addition at the origin. Processing into juices, pulps, or IQF frozen products can reduce dependency on fresh exports. Certified products with sustainability and traceability credentials also achieve higher prices in Europe and Asia.
Projections and scenarios
Analysts outline three possible scenarios. A moderate protectionist environment would allow for rapid adaptation through investment in logistics and diversification. A period of high and sustained protection could force a drop in U.S.-bound exports, requiring restructuring of the sector. A third possibility involves selective agreements, in which some countries retain preferential access while others lose market share.
In all cases, innovation and resilience are considered key factors. Investment in cold storage, digital traceability, and workforce training is identified as a way to sustain competitiveness.
"Countries that react quickly will be able to transform this threat into a structural advantage, consolidating more sophisticated chains that are less dependent on a single market," concludes the report.
Source: Blueberries Consulting
