This year's drought has reduced yields in some UK crops by up to 50%. The impact highlights broader issues in the way the food system is structured, prioritising low and stable prices over resilience to climate shocks.
The UK currently produces around 62% of its food and 53% of its fresh vegetables. Imports from Spain, Italy, and North Africa fill the gap, but when several regions experience extreme weather at the same time, alternatives are limited.
Supermarkets use "just-in-time" logistics with little storage, a model designed to cut costs and waste, but one that leaves supply chains exposed. Produce is delivered directly from farms to distribution centres without a buffer in case of crop failure. Strategic reserves or cold-chain hubs could add resilience, but such infrastructure is largely absent.
Contracts also remain one-sided. If crops do not meet cosmetic standards or retailers adjust orders, farmers bear the losses. With less supply, shortages spread quickly and prices rise. In June 2025, food inflation increased 4.5% year-on-year, the fastest rate since early 2024.
At the same time, the UK discards 9.5 million tons of food annually, valued at about £19 billion (US$24bn). Supermarkets account for more than 200,000 tons of fresh produce waste each year, often due to appearance standards. Farmers also report ploughing edible crops back into the soil when demand forecasts change.
Some argue that resilience requires consumer expectations to shift. Current practices shield shoppers from seasonal variation, with farmers and overseas producers absorbing the risk. Allowing prices to fluctuate in line with production could give producers a more stable income to invest in adaptation. However, lower-income households already spend a greater share of earnings on food, meaning targeted support would be required.
Research suggests three changes could strengthen the system. Investment in regional hubs for storage and processing would reduce reliance on imports and improve distribution between Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and England. Retailers could support these hubs through long-term contracts, while producers could collaborate to share facilities.
Fairer contracts are also needed to distribute risk more evenly between farmers, processors, and supermarkets. At present, retailers hold most of the power, with short-notice cancellations common. Without changes, more producers may leave the sector.
Finally, government policy could prioritise resilience by funding adaptation measures such as drought-resistant crops and water management, rather than relying on crisis subsidies.
Food security remains closely tied to national security. A system designed primarily to keep prices low leaves the UK vulnerable to repeated shocks from drought, floods, and heatwaves.
Source: The Conversation
