The table potato in Poland is currently in its growth phase, with flowering underway and entering a period of heightened water demand. Concurrently, harvesting of early-maturing varieties has begun. Initially, these tubers are harvested using sprouted seed potatoes covered with agrotextiles. However, current market dynamics do not support favorable prices. Concerns loom over potential issues in the fall of 2025, once the main crop is released. According to Dr. Wojciech Nowacki from the Polish Potato Association, it's crucial to monitor these developments.
There has been a reported expansion in the potato cultivation area this year. Dr. Nowacki suggests that while theoretically, increased supply might raise concerns, the actual market landscape is affected by harvest anomalies, including local droughts and adverse weather conditions. Early harvests this season, nevertheless, have proven satisfactory, with yields surpassing previous years, according to market data.
Based on preliminary forecasts, the average national yield in 2024 was 302 dt/ha. Expectations for this autumn's harvest suggest an increase to 330 dt/ha, resulting in an estimated 7.4 million tons, compared to the previous 5.9 million tons.
The price fluctuations for young, fresh potatoes underscore the influence of supply-demand dynamics. Recent trends show drastic declines in wholesale prices for young potatoes, a consequence of swift turnover needs and perishability pressures. Moreover, producers aim to clear fields for subsequent crops, like Chinese cabbage.
Import activity significantly impacts the Polish potato market. During June and July, early potatoes from the Mediterranean region flood the market, increasing supply and precipitating price drops. The perishability of young potatoes necessitates swift market transitions, further complicating storage and retail packaging.
Regarding export potential, Dr. Nowacki indicates a previous opportunity to export to Belarus and Russia amid local shortages. Export feasibility in the coming months remains uncertain, but demand will continue to influence domestic pricing.
Weather conditions, plantation protection, fertilization effectiveness, and subsequent storage losses will be determinants of the final yield quality. The marketable yield, rather than aggregate yield, will ultimately be the focus.
Polish potatoes must address domestic needs in edible markets, processing, and the starch industry. Wholesale prices in the edible potato sector are expected to stabilize between PLN 800-1000 per ton while processing raw materials should align with contractual accords.
The long-term prospect for Polish potatoes on international markets hinges on market conditions and trader dynamics. Opportunities may emerge as demand from Eastern and Southern Europe arises. Analyzing international trade routes remains a gap, requiring institutional support to navigate the global market effectively.
Source: Argenpapa
