Around half of Azerbaijan's exports to Russia consist of fruits and vegetables. Any deterioration in bilateral relations could affect this trade, with potential consequences for producers and supply chains.
In 2024, the total volume of Azerbaijani exports to Russia reached approximately $1.2 billion, with fresh fruits and vegetables making up close to 50%. While total exports to Russia decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, Russia remains the third-largest trade partner for Azerbaijan, after Italy and Turkey.
Trade analysts point out that Azerbaijani producers may find it difficult to immediately replace the Russian market. Logistics to the EU and Gulf countries are more expensive, and those markets have stricter quality standards.
While a full rupture in relations appears unlikely, experts warn that the fresh produce sector could be among the first to feel the effects if trade restrictions are imposed or logistical routes are affected.
Despite mutual reliance on trade, the tone of current relations suggests Moscow may no longer be able to set the rules of engagement unilaterally. In the context of Western sanctions and shrinking global markets, Russia's room for maneuver is narrowing, making even mid-sized partners like Azerbaijan increasingly significant.
Source: www.dw.com
