The 2025–2026 Orange Crop Forecast report for Brazil's São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt projects a total production of 232.38 million 40.8 kg boxes of oranges. This figure represents a 24.36% increase compared to the previous season, which yielded 186.75 million boxes. The rise is attributed to favorable weather conditions and a higher fruit set per tree, particularly in the early varieties.
The tree inventory shows a total of 174.08 million bearing trees, up slightly from the previous year. The increase results from new plantings reaching production age and ongoing orchard maintenance. The area occupied by orange groves totals 556,986 hectares, with a slight reduction in average plant density, continuing a trend of declining tree numbers per hectare.
The yield per tree is forecast at 1.334 boxes, a 24.26% increase from the 1.073 boxes per tree recorded last season. This improvement is due to better weather during the flowering and fruit-setting periods. The average number of fruits per tree is expected to rise to 690, compared to 574 in the 2024–2025 cycle, driven mainly by increases in early and mid-season varieties.
Despite a higher fruit count, the average fruit size is expected to remain relatively small at 259 fruits per box, due to the expected impact of El Niño-related dry conditions in the second half of the cycle. Still, fruit drop is forecast at 19.10%, a modest decrease from the 21.36% seen in the previous crop.
The report highlights that irrigated groves contributed to the overall increase in productivity and are becoming more significant in offsetting the effects of irregular rainfall. Irrigated groves now cover 42% of the total area, up from 40% in the prior year.
In terms of production by group, early-season varieties are expected to yield 63.04 million boxes, followed by Pera Rio at 93.72 million, Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha at 51.06 million, and Natal at 24.56 million boxes.
Overall, the forecast reflects a return to levels closer to the long-term average, offering a more optimistic outlook for the upcoming harvest following several challenging years marked by adverse weather and lower yields.
To view the full report, click here.
For more information:
Fundecitrus
Tel: +55 163301 7000
www.fundecitrus.com.br
