The 2025–2026 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt reached 292.94 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, according to the April 2026 update. This represents a 0.1 per cent increase compared to the February forecast and a 26.9 per cent increase compared to the previous crop of 230.87 million boxes.
Production by variety group included 46.23 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi, 17.65 million boxes of other early-season varieties, 87.44 million boxes of Pera, 104.53 million boxes of Valencia and Folha Murcha, and 37.09 million boxes of Natal.
Despite the higher year-on-year output, production was 6.9 per cent below the initial forecast released in May 2025. Climatic and phytosanitary conditions, along with a delayed harvest, contributed to higher fruit drop rates and lower fruit weight.
© Fundecitrus
The harvest progressed later than in previous seasons due to a high proportion of second-bloom fruit and harvesting at optimal maturity. Nearly half of the Pera variety was harvested under dry conditions, as rainfall intensified only from mid-October.
Average rainfall across the citrus belt from May 2025 to March 2026 totaled 1,135 millimeters, representing a 13 per cent deficit compared to the historical average. The North sector recorded the largest deficits, with 24 per cent less rainfall in Bebedouro and 30 per cent less in Altinópolis and the Triângulo Mineiro region.
Lower rainfall also affected fruit size. Across all varieties, the number of fruits required to fill a 40.8 kg box increased from 258 to 266 fruits. Early varieties maintained 305 fruits per box, while other early varieties increased to 272 fruits per box. The Pera variety reached 268 fruits per box, while Valencia and Folha Murcha reached 251 fruits per box, and Natal reached 247 fruits per box.
Fruit drop rates increased across the citrus belt, reaching 23.2 per cent, up 3.2 percentage points compared to the initial forecast. Late varieties recorded the highest drop rates, with Valencia and Folha Murcha at 26.0 per cent and Natal at 28.8 per cent.
Production losses from premature fruit drop were estimated at 88.49 million boxes. Greening was the main factor, accounting for 13.00 per cent of the total drop, equivalent to 49.59 million boxes, followed by fruit borer and fruit fly at 3.8 per cent, representing 14.49 million boxes.
The next orange crop forecast for the 2026–2027 season will be released on May 08, 2026.
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© FundecitrusFor more information:
Fundecitrus
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