Four weeks since the war in the Middle East began, it remains unclear how long the conflict will continue, the extent of infrastructure damage, and how long repairs in affected countries will take.
With each passing day, the negative impact on the global economy is increasing. For exporting businesses, this presents a risk that requires planning for alternative export markets where conditions allow.
South Africa is approaching the citrus export season. The challenge this year is not only ample domestic supply but also a recovery in Brazilian output, which is expected to increase competition with South African products across export markets.
The same applies to other fruits and berries, whose export seasons are also approaching. The Middle East is not South Africa's largest market, accounting for about 8 per cent of agricultural exports valued at US$15.1 billion in 2025, according to Trade Map data.
However, limited access to the Middle East, combined with recovering South American production, may increase competition in other markets where South Africa would typically expand volumes during periods of lower South American supply.
The path ahead requires coordination between exporting industries and government departments, including the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Trade, Industry, and Competition, and the Department of International Relations and Cooperation. This coordination should focus on identifying and prioritising alternative export markets capable of absorbing additional volumes.
The industry is expected to identify markets where relationships already exist or can be established quickly, and communicate this to relevant departments, which can then initiate engagement at the government level.
Economic analysts in South African Missions abroad can support this process by assessing opportunities to expand agricultural exports in their respective regions. Communication can take place through commodity associations or established channels in Pretoria. Supporting South African businesses during this period forms part of the country's economic diplomacy.
Assisting businesses in this context supports employment and reinforces the role of economic diplomacy in trade development.
The current situation also highlights the need for export diversification. Expanding access to new markets can support growth and reduce exposure to a limited number of destinations.
At the same time, plans to expand agricultural production through underutilised government-owned land will increase output. This expansion requires the development of additional export markets to absorb supply and maintain farm profitability.
The risks linked to the Middle East do not reduce its long-term importance as an export destination. The current situation presents a short-term challenge for South Africa's agricultural exports.
Source: Wandile Sihlobo
