Throughout North-Western Europe the NEPG (North-Western European Potato Growers) reports that it is obvious that the next potato crop will be much lower and quality issues will be a main challenge. Extreme record drought and exceptional temperatures all over the main potato growing countries in Europe.
Not even 50 % of the North-Western potato acreage can be irrigated and is spite of the high costs irrigation pumps are working day and night. But in all countries restrictions for the use of water have been imposed by regional administrations. Irrigation can be forbidden, forbidden during a few hours in the day, or the volumes of water allowed for irrigation can be decreased The irrigated fields still have growth potential. However for many fields the rain came too late. After the recent rain-showers there is a treat of secondary growth, first cases are already reported. Actually the potatoes have an extreme high dry matter content which can also be considered as a risk for extra damage during the upcoming harvest in extreme dry fields.
The first trial digs in mainland Europe show a large variation between irrigated and non-irrigated fields, for example, on average in France, for the moment, 13 to/ha brut. Based upon the actual knowledge, experts consider overall, a minimum 15 to 25% lower yields, compared with the long term average. In the coming weeks more serious trial digs in the various mainland NEPG countries will be reported. It is too early to estimate the expected lower harvest at this moment. Due to the expected quality issues the final net yields are also questionable.
About 70 % of the consumption potato crop in the mainland NEPG countries is in some kind of way contracted, mainly with the processing industry. Many growers report that they will probably not be able to supply the contracted volume and the question is how the buyers will react and might force growers to supply their contracted volumes, even if buying at the actual expensive free market is needed. However free potatoes will be very scarce all over the NEPG area. Financial losses will be considerable even if the growers manage just to fulfil their contracts.
A spokesman of the British farmers union, NFU, concluded “the extreme weather events of 2018 are out of growers control and it would take the most stone-hearted buyer not to recognize this.“ The area of potatoes grown in Great Britain is estimated to have reduced 3% this year according to the AHDB, which may exacerbate issues should yields show significant reductions. The NFU has been in touch with a number of packers, processors and retailers over the last couple of months, asking how they intend to deal with yield and quality issues, and calling on them to apply flexibility and fairness when dealing with shortages.
In Belgium, France and Germany the farmers unions are in discussion with the clients or have meetings in the upcoming week. Some governments are asked to declare this situation as a “natural catastrophe”, so the growers could claim Force Majeure at their clients and not force them to supply the contracted volumes.
The NEPG would regret if processors on an individual base discuss the contract issues with their growers and the NEPG suggests an overall pan North-Western approach. This dry season and the change of climate is also a challenge for the potato supply chain to reconsider the contracts and market risks for the near future. The processing industry needs more potatoes every year and the risk of growing increases proportionally. Now all risks are for the growers.
The NEPG suggests that the COPA, Potato Working Group of the EU, start discussions with EUROPATAT (European Potato Traders Association) and EUPPA (European Potato Processors Association).
Probably the lower overall yields will also effect the yields for seed potatoes for next season
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